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Blog
“Glocalizing” Your Commercial Forecast
Rick Johnston, PhD, Senior Software Solutions Principal, Consulting Services, IQVIA
Alex Tataru, Manager, Consulting
Mar 18, 2021
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  • "Glocalizing" Your Commercial Forecast

Thirty years ago, the pharma industry derived most of its revenues from North America and Europe. But over the past 15 years, rising demand for innovative therapies in emerging markets has shifted the landscape. From 2005-2015 most big pharma companies saw Asia Pacific and emerging markets expand to comprise at least 25% of their total revenuesi.

This has complicated forecasting efforts, since data access and data quality are often lower in emerging markets. And assumptions that are true for America and Europe just don’t resonate in many areas of the world. For example, an IQVIA report from March 2017 looked at the impact of digital communication on uptake in every market. The study found 94% of Japan’s specialist physicians felt their preferred amount of digital communication was being achieved, however, this figure was just 50% in the US and 17% in the UK.ii.

The average global-level forecast is not able to manage this type and scale of variance by market. Doing it requires global-local collaboration as well as technology platforms that explicitly adapt big picture trends for local needs.

When global-only forecasts fall short

A centrally-generated forecast offers stakeholders a broad view of the market landscape. Oftentimes, these are produced by global experts with access to big datasets and who generate sophisticated forecast funnels based on a detailed understanding of the product. It’s an excellent foundation, but in today’s heterogeneous product landscape, it’s only the beginning.

Country-level forecasts bring more nuanced perspective from local experts. These regional affiliates are ‘on the ground’ and often have a better sense of what’s really happening in their market. But getting this regional affiliate perspective has been difficult. Global team members may find themselves making calls and sending emails, or shepherding country affiliates through a cumbersome ‘forecast submission’ process. Alternatively, local affiliates may find that their view of the market does not align well with the global standard – perhaps it is too simplistic or too complex. As a result, some build ‘shadow copies’ of commercial forecasts that have inputs and assumptions that reflect their own needs. These ‘shadow’ forecasts may never be seen by global groups, meaning valuable insights may be lost and teams are not aligned on actual goals.

But there are better ways for local and global teams to collaborate.

The future: Glocal Forecasting platforms

“Glocal” forecasting platforms are an emerging trend in pharma forecasting. This new type of forecasting technology offers collaborative platforms that allow flexible frameworks and real-time access to the same information and insights.

In these models, the global and local teams work together to build an accurate forecast. In many cases, the global team will provide a forecast framework and identify the metrics that should be tracked consistently across all markets. But within that framework, affiliates can use their own local research to adjust the forecast projections and to customize certain parts of the funnel for their individual markets. Under this model, teams benefit from maintaining a single source of truth at the global and local level.

For example, if the global forecast projects revenues based on an assumed net price discount that isn’t applicable for a local market, local affiliates can quickly update those metrics. They can also add custom parameters that are applicable only to their market – like the reimbursement landscape – while being consistent with a common global structure. Both teams get the best of both worlds: global consistency of structure, with local accuracy of insights.

When selecting a platform to support ‘glocal’ forecasting, pharma companies should look for a solution that can:

  • Be able to integrate company and real-world data sources easily into the forecast
  • Use a simple user interface that both forecasting experts and generalists can utilize comfortably to reduce forecast cycle-time.
  • Allow multiple users (global and local) to update forecasts in parallel and in real-time
  • Support various commercial forecast models for different products, indications and markets
  • Maintain a common forecast framework while allowing customization where needed – preferably able to handle both pipeline and inline products
  • Include analytics and output capabilities such as what-if scenarios, market event modeling, uncertainty analysis and visual output dashboards

The right solution will bring greater transparency and accuracy to the forecasting process, and ensure you are leveraging the knowledge of every expert in your organization.

To learn more about glocal forecasting, check out our webcast: Make Your Commercial Forecasting “Glocal” – Best Practices for Integrating Local and Global Market Forecasts or contact ForeastHorizon@iqvia.com

 

i Science Direct; “The changing model of big pharma: impact of key trends” (2016);

ii IQVIA: Channel preference versus promotional reality: The core challenge of multichannel marketing

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